Jeffrey Donaldson set out two very different and contradictory goals for Unionism in an interview with the Belfast Telegraph (25 September 2021).
Donaldson outlines the first, and perhaps more appealing, the goal when he adds, “I hope we can work with the UUP and TUV to ensure we maximise the number of Assembly seats unionism secures and return as many as possible pro-Union, anti-protocol MLAs”.
Now, the best way to accomplish this is to ensure that voters in each constituency have a wide range of Unionist candidates to choose from. Simply put, if one or more Unionist parties do not field candidates, some of their followers will remain at home, reducing the overall Unionist vote. They will vote if their party has one or more candidates, and they may be able to transfer their vote to another Unionist party if necessary. All that is required for this to function is for each party's supporters to propose that their funds be transferred to other anti-protocol parties. There may be more Unionist MLAs who support this policy, but they aren't necessarily DUP members.
Mr Donaldson, on the other hand, sets out a very different objective. “I’m Unionism cannot afford for the vote to be fractured, and Sinn Fein to emerge as the largest party through the middle.”
This masks the weary old cry that, despite the fact that many people believe the DUP has betrayed them, they must cast their first preference votes for the party to avoid a "fragmented vote." In a PR election, it is impossible to split or fragment the vote provided we use our transfers appropriately.
Mr Donaldson's plan is expected to be very different, with other parties standing aside to allow the DUP to gain as many seats as possible. Disillusioned Unionist voters would simply stay at home as a result of such a plan, lowering the overall Unionist vote. As a result, fewer Unionist MLAs would be re-elected.
Everyone may have to accept the fact that the DUP has become so unpopular that it has a slim prospect of outnumbering Sinn Fein in the next election. As part of the St Andrews Agreement, the DUP selfishly requested that the largest party, rather than the largest of the Unionist, Nationalist, or Other organizations, be offered the position of First Minister.
The only way out of this mess is to take the offer of a different pact made months ago. If Sinn Fein is the largest political party, Unionists will simply refuse to nominate until the rules are modified to award the position to the largest grouping rather than the largest political party. In other words, repeal the rule change which Sinn Fein and the DUP did at St Andrew's Agreement.
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